Poll: Americans Oppose Political Betting, Hold Indifferent Views on Prediction Industry

• A recent Politico poll indicates a majority of Americans oppose betting on elections, with most stating the practice should be illegal
• Voters remain deeply divided and largely ambivalent about the broader prediction markets industry, showing uncertainty over whether the platforms are positive or negative
• In contrast, a comfortable majority of the public supports the legality and social acceptance of sports wagering

Prediction markets have some work to do to garner favorable views among Americans. A good place to start is limiting one of the industry’s most popular offerings: political event contracts.

A new Politico poll conducted by U.K. polling outfit Public First indicates respondents aren’t on board with betting on election results. Less than a third (30%) told the pollsters it should be legal to wager on election outcomes while 44% hold the opposite view.

Specific contract types draw even sharper public disapproval: 40% of respondents believe “mention markets“—derivatives based on comments made by the president or news organizations—should be illegal, while 43% oppose wagering on who might receive presidential pardons.

While the poll does not address how the industry will respond to this pushback, a retreat is highly unlikely. The 2024 presidential election firmly cemented companies like Kalshi and Polymarket into the mainstream zeitgeist, and the industry is dug in for the long haul.

That election remains one of the most traded events in prediction market industry history, though it could easily be toppled in volume terms by the 2026 midterms. Other political contests, including the 2025 New York City mayoral contest, drove volume spikes on yes/no exchanges.

Sanguine View on Sports Event Contracts

While those queried by Politico voiced concern about political event contracts, they’re more on board with sports derivatives – the lifeblood of the prediction market industry.

Recent analysis from Stifel indicates that sports derivatives account for 58% of total turnover on Kalshi, the largest U.S. prediction market. Throw in another 27% attributable to combos or parlays, which heavily tilt toward sports, and the percentage grows.

Other markets that a plurality of Americans say should be legal include weather derivatives (46%) and betting on award shows (45%). In each case, just a quarter of respondents to the Politico poll say those wagers should be illegal.

Prediction Market Image Issues

While prediction markets are increasingly mainstream and popular among younger demographics, the industry at large faces an image deficit. Just 19% of those queried in the Politico poll view prediction markets in a positive light, but 29% hold negative views of the industry. Fifty-two percent don’t feel either way or just don’t know.

There are some political divides. Politico points out that 25% of voters that voted for President Trump in 2024 have positive views on prediction market while 20% of those that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris feel the same.

The ‘neither positive nor negative’ camp is composed equally of Harris and Trump voters at 27% apiece. However, a stark partisan divide emerges on the negative side of the ledger, where 36% of Harris voters object to prediction markets compared to just 27% of Trump voters.