Prediction Market Volume Hits Record $14.4B as Non-Sports Contracts Explode

• Weekly prediction market volume hit a record $14.4 billion, more than doubling the $5–$6 billion weekly baseline seen at the start of the year
• The milestone marks the third consecutive record week, as capital risk exposure expands alongside an all-time high of $1.6 billion in open interest
• While the FIFA World Cup is a major driver, non-sports contracts are propelling the shift—with macroeconomic and emergency event trading alone hitting $3.6 billion last week

Prediction markets are shattering weekly volume records at an unprecedented pace. Last week, total volume on major exchanges surged to $14.4 billion, easily outpacing the $10 billion threshold established the week before.

As a16z crypto — the cryptocurrency and prediction markets investing arm of Andreesen Horowitz — points out in its latest report, last week’s prediction market turnover didn’t just represent the first time the metric topped $14 billion, it’s also noticeably than the $5 billion to $6 billion weekly levels seen earlier this year.

Add to that, last week’s pace is 10x what was seen a year ago.

Across prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, open interest jumped to $1.6 billion last week, marking the third straight week of records for that metric.

Unlike volume, open interest can only grow when new positions are opened faster than existing ones resolve, so the growth seen here reflects how more money is being put at stake in these markets,” notes a16z.

Open interest was hovering $200 million per week last fall, indicating an 8x surge has taken place.

Non-Sports Event Contracts Contributing to the Cause

There are some empirical truths in the prediction market industry. First, sports derivatives are significant volume drivers. By some estimates, those event contracts accounted for 80% of volume on Kalshi for the 21 months ending in April.

Second, and on a related note, the World Cup is fanning the flames of the prediction market volume fire — a point confirmed by analysts and operators alike. That trend is likely to prove durable the longer the U.S. and other high-profile teams remain in the tournament. Still, data confirm non-sports contracts are picking up plenty of slack, too.

“Non-sports volume — across categories like politics, economics, geopolitics, and current events — hit $3.6 billion last week on Kalshi and Polymarket combined. That’s larger than total prediction market volume (sports included) was just last year,” a16z explained.

“In July 2025, non-sports weekly volume was around $200 million. It has grown roughly 18x since then, with the trajectory steepening sharply this month,” a16z added.

Kalshi Still the King

Another prediction market truth is that in volume terms, Kalshi remains the undisputed king. Data cited by a16z indicate that Kalshi and Polymarket are running away with the market share competition, though Rothera is making strides.

The venture capital firm tracks volume data from nine prediction markets – HIP-4, Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad, Opinion, Polymarket, Predictforfun, Probable and Rothera. Some of those platforms are not available in the U.S.

a16z is a Kalshi investor. The company was also an early investor in Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN), the cryptocurrency exchange that now partners with Kalshi on its prediction market offering.