Report: Zuck Wants Meta in the Prediction Market Game

• Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly directed staffers to develop a dedicated prediction market mobile application
• Internally known as “Arena,” the platform would utilize a play-money format rather than real-money wagering
• The application is designed to operate completely independent of Meta’s core ecosystems, like Facebook and Instagram

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly instructed a small number of employees to get to work on a prediction market mobile application to compete with the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket.

Citing unidentified staffers with knowledge of the matter, The New York Times reported that the Facebook parent is working on a prediction market app known as Arena.

It’s believed the app will not feature real money buying and selling of event contracts. Rather, it’d operate on a points system, but it’s possible a transition to real money will be made in the future one of the employees told The Times.

If the report is accurate, this marks the second time the social media giant has taken a stab at the prediction market concept. In 2020, the company was an early arrival to the event contracts space, rolling out a platform known as Forecast that allowed users to “bet” on real world happenings, but without real money.

Launched under Meta’s New Product Experimentation (NPE) unit, Forecast was abandoned in 2022 after the platform failed to gain momentum.

Meta Could Be Formidable Prediction Market Competitor

With a market value of $1.43 trillion, Meta is one of the largest companies in the world and it had $81.59 billion in cash on hand at the end of the first quarter, confirming it has the financial firepower to be a credible threat in the prediction market industry.

Putting that cash tally into context, it’s more than triple Kalshi’s private market valuation.

The rumor mill indicates that Arena would function independently of those apps, but if the Meta prediction market gains steam, it may be logical for the company to integrate it into one or all of the aforementioned platforms.

There’s already precedent for the prediction market/social media marriage. Polymarket has an agreement with Elon Musk’s X while Kalshi has an arrangement with xAI, that platform’s artificial intelligence (AI) component, which includes Grok.

Interesting History

Should Meta earnestly pursue a prediction market entry, it could renew Zuckerberg’s rivalry with Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss — a relationship that was part of the storyline in the hit 2010 movie “The Social Network.”

The brothers sued Zuckerberg in 2004 alleging he stole their idea for Facebook. The parties reached a $65 million cash and equity settlement in 2008. They famously allocated $11 million of that settlement to Bitcoin when the largest digital currency was trading at $120.

Today, they run Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ: GEMI), a cryptocurrency trading firm that also controls the Gemini Predictions yes/no exchange.